高空西北气流下铜仁东部特大暴雨的预报分析及思考          下载免费PDF全文

徐大红  胡萍  杨群  李习瑾 《中低纬山地气象》2022,46(2):9-17

利用贵州省预报业务常规、地面自动站加密观测资料、NCEP/FNL1°×1°再分析资料、业务数值预报模式,分析2020年6月29日铜仁市东部高空西北气流影响下的特大暴雨环境场特征、地面中小尺度场特征以及3家数值预报模式检验,初步分析产生此次特大暴雨的可能成因是在副高东南退、东北冷涡槽后高空西北气流维持、低层冷平流下传西输、地面辐合维持增强为涡旋、地面东路弱冷空气侵入、能量锋区斜压性增强;短临监测发现雷达回波有列车效应、低层辐合高层辐散的共轭配置、中层气旋式辐合;初步得出了西北气流影响下弱天气尺度环境场的铜仁市东部暴雨的预报着眼点。  相似文献   

Monthly Variations of Atmospheric Circulations Associated with Haze Pollution in the Yangtze River Delta and North China     

Xinyu ZHANG  Zhicong YIN  Huijun WANG  Mingkeng DUAN 《大气科学进展》2021,38(4):569-580

Haze pollution in early winter(December and January) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) and in North China(NC)are both severe;however, their monthly variations are significantly different. In this study, the dominant large-scale atmospheric circulations and local meteorological conditions were investigated and compared over the YRD and NC in each month. Results showed that the YRD(NC) is dominated by the so-called Scandinavia(East Atlantic/West Russia)pattern in December, and these circulations weaken in January. The East Asian December and January monsoons over the YRD and NC have negative correlations with the number of haze days. The local descending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over the YRD, while the local ascending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over NC in January, despite a weaker relationship in December. Additionally, the monthly variations of atmospheric circulations showed that adverse meteorological conditions restrict the vertical(horizontal) dispersion of haze pollution in December(January) over the YRD, while the associated local weather conditions are similar in these two months over NC.  相似文献   

The Interannual Variation of Transboundary Contributions from Chinese Emissions of PM_(2.5) to South Korea     

Xiao HAN  Meigen ZHANG 《大气科学进展》2021,38(5):701-706

In recent years,several studies pointed out that anthropogenic emission sources in China which significantly contribute to the PM_2.5mass burden was an important cause of particulate pollution in South Korea.However,most studies generally focused upon a single pollution event.It is rare to see comprehensive research that captures those features prone to interannual variations concerning the transboundary pollutant contribution in South Korea using a unified method.In this paper,we establish the emission inventories covering East Asia in 2010,2015,and 2017,and then conduct the source apportionment by applying a coupled regional air quality model called the Integrated Source Apportionment Module(ISAM).Comparison of simulated and observed PM_2.5mass concentration at 165 CNEMC(China National Environmental Monitoring Center)sites suggests that the PM_2.5concentrations are well represented by the modeling system.The model is used to quantitatively investigate the contribution from emission sources in China to PM_2.5concentrations over South Korea and those features found to be prone to interannual variations are then discussed.The results show that the average annual contribution of PM_2.5has dropped significantly from 28.0%in 2010 to 15.7%in 2017,which strongly suggests that China has achieved remarkable results in the treatment of atmospheric particulates.  相似文献   

Impacts of Aerosol-Radiation Interactions on the Wintertime Particulate Pollution under Different Synoptic Patterns in the Guanzhong Basin,China     

Naifang BEI  Xia LI  Qiyuan WANG  Suixin LIU  Jiarui WU  Jiayi LIANG  Lang LIU  Ruonan WANG  Guohui LI 《大气科学进展》2021,38(7):1141-1152

The effects of aerosol–radiation interactions(ARI) are not only important for regional and global climate, but they can also drive particulate matter(PM) pollution. In this study, the ARI contribution to the near-surface fine PM(PM2.5)concentrations in the Guanzhong Basin(GZB) is evaluated under four unfavorable synoptic patterns, including "northlow", "transition", "southeast-trough", and "inland-high", based on WRF-Chem model simulations of a persistent heavy PM pollution episode in January 2019. Simulations show that ARI consistently decreases both solar radiation reaching down to the surface(SWDOWN) and surface temperature(TSFC), which then reduces wind speed, induces sinking motion,and influences cloud formation in the GZB. However, large differences under the four synoptic patterns still exist. The average reductions of SWDOWN and daytime TSFC in the GZB range from 15.2% and 1.04°C in the case of the"transition" pattern to 26.7% and 1.69°C in the case of the "north-low" pattern, respectively. Furthermore, ARI suppresses the development of the planetary boundary layer(PBL), with the decrease of PBL height(PBLH) varying from 18.7% in the case of the "transition" pattern to 32.0% in the case of the "north-low" pattern. The increase of daytime near-surface PM2.5 in the GZB due to ARI is 12.0%, 8.1%, 9.5%, and 9.7% under the four synoptic patterns, respectively. Ensemble analyses also reveal that when near-surface PM2.5 concentrations are low, ARI tends to lower PM2.5 concentrations with decreased PBLH, which is caused by enhanced divergence or a transition from divergence to convergence in an area. ARI contributes 15%–25% toward the near-surface PM2.5 concentrations during the severe PM pollution period under the four synoptic patterns.  相似文献   

2020年11月大气环流和天气分析     

南洋  饶晓琴  尤媛  关良 《气象》2021,(2):253-260

2020年11月大气环流的主要特征为:北半球极涡呈偶极分布,环流呈三波型,东亚大槽偏弱,南支槽偏弱,西太平洋副热带高压偏西偏强。全国平均降水量为16.9 mm,比常年同期(19.0 mm)偏少11%,月内17—19日出现了一次强雨雪天气过程,湖北恩施建始县和辽宁丹东出现大暴雨,黑龙江牡丹江、鸡西和七台河、内蒙古通辽和赤峰等地出现大暴雪或特大暴雪。全国平均气温为3.9℃,比常年同期(2.9℃)偏高1℃,11月共出现4次冷空气过程,其中1次为全国强冷空气过程(18—22日)。10—17日,大气扩散条件较为不利,华北中南部、黄淮西部、汾渭平原等地发生一次雾-霾天气过程。  相似文献   

基于统一高度Cressman方法的地面2m气温客观分析          下载免费PDF全文

朱文刚  李昌义  车军辉 《山东气象》2021,41(2):138-148

针对离散站点资料格点化的业务需求及 Cressman 方法在地形复杂区域客观分析存在的问 题,利用山东及周边省自动气象站观测的 2 m气温和 ECMWF预报的海上 2 m气温,结合山东省中尺度数值预报位温递减率、90 m分辨率 SRTM高程数据,采用统一高度 Cressman 方法对山东省地面2 m气温进行客观分析,生成了逐 1 h、0.01°×0.01°高分辨率的地面 2 m气温格点产品。结果表明,统一高度 Cressman 方法的客观分析格点产品在地形复杂区域的分析更合理,月平均误差基本在±1 ℃以内,鲁中山区地形高度较高区域月平均误差略大于鲁西北、鲁西南、鲁东南和山东半岛等地的平原地区,气温偏低的10、11、12月温度准确率均略低于 5、6、7、8、9 月;2020 年 5—12 月平均误差为－0.0039 ℃,平均绝对误差为 0.1469 ℃,均方根误差为 0.3597 ℃,2 ℃以内准确率为 99.64%,1 ℃以内准确率为 98.24%,各项检验指标均较优。总体上统一高度 Cressman 客观分析格点产品质量接近中国气象局陆面数据同化系统（ HRCLDAS ）高分辨率格点实况产品。  相似文献   

河北沧州市臭氧质量浓度与气象因子的关系分析     

熊险平  沈瑞珊  索春男  李二杰  张唯 《干旱气象》2022,40(1):108-113

利用2014—2020年河北沧州逐小时气象与环境监测数据,对沧州市臭氧(O_(3))污染加剧现状及其与气象因子的关系进行分析。结果表明:(1)沧州地区O_(3)污染呈加剧态势,且O_(3)已上升为该地区首要污染物;O_(3)污染集中出现在5—9月,O_(3)质量浓度日变化呈单峰单谷型,最大浓度出现在16:00前后;(2)5—9月O_(3)日最大8 h平均质量浓度(简称“O_(3)-8 h”)所处时段,平均气温、最高气温、相对湿度、总辐射辐照度与O_(3)质量浓度的相关性较好,本站气压、水汽压和平均风速与O_(3)质量浓度的相关性未通过显著性检验;(3)5—9月O_(3)-8 h时段,当同时满足8 h平均气温高于30.9℃、最高气温高于32.7℃、平均相对湿度低于42.1%、平均总辐射辐照度高于505.8 W·m^(-2)时,出现O_(3)污染的概率达84%;(4)气象因子不是O_(3)小时质量浓度快速增长的充分条件。  相似文献   

Public concern about,and desire for research into,the human health effects of marine plastic pollution: Results from a 15-country survey across Europe and Australia     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

Marine plastic pollution is caused by humans and has become ubiquitous in the marine environment. Despite the widely acknowledged ecological consequences, the scientific evidence regarding detrimental human health impacts is currently debated, and there is no substantive evidence surrounding public opinion with respect to marine plastic pollution and human health. Results from a 15-country survey (n = 15,179) found that both the European and Australian public were highly concerned about the potential human health impacts of marine plastic pollution, and strongly supported the funding of research which aims to better understand its health/wellbeing implications. Multi-level modelling revealed that these perceptions varied across socio-demographic factors (e.g. gender), political orientation, marine contact factors (e.g. marine occupation and engagement in coastal recreation activities) and personality traits (e.g. openness, conscientiousness and agreeableness). Quantifying attitudes, as well as understanding how individual-level differences shape risk perception will enable policy makers and communicators to develop more targeted communications and initiatives that target a reduction in marine plastic pollution.  相似文献   

Heavy mineral composition and texture of the recently formed fluvial delta sediment of Lake Nasser/Nubia,Egypt and Sudan     

Omran E.Frihy  Essam A.Deabes  Abdelaleem A.Abudia  Ahamed Adawi 《国际泥沙研究》2022,37(1):70-82

Surficial sediment samples collected from the recently formed fluvial delta in Lake Nasser/Nubia (Egypt and Sudan) in conjunction with data on bottom current and depth soundings are examined to interpret hydraulic-sorting processes and transport/depositional patterns.The～500 km long northeastwardtrending lake,lies within Egypt and Sudan,is created as a result of the construction of the Aswan High Dam in 1964.The original grain-size distribution and heavy mineral compositions of these samples hel...  相似文献   

2000—2020年兴都库什东部冰川区物质平衡变化及其影响因素     

骆建伟  柯长青  喻薛凝 《冰川冻土》2022,44(1):159-170

利用SRTM DEM和ASTER立体像对数据获取的DEM分析了2000—2020年兴都库什东部的冰川物质平衡,并结合CRU TS 4.04气象数据探讨了气温、降水、地形和冰湖对南、北冰川区物质平衡空间差异的影响。结果表明：2000—2020年兴都库什东部冰川区物质平衡为（-0.02±0.04） m w.e.·a^-1,冰川整体呈现微弱的负物质平衡状态。从坡向来看,南坡以正物质平衡冰川居多,北坡以负物质平衡冰川居多。从南、北两个子区域来看,北部冰川区物质平衡为（0.07±0.04） m w.e.·a^-1,南部冰川区物质平衡为（-0.32±0.04） m w.e.·a^-1。北部冰川面积规模大,所处海拔区间高,南部则相反。北部冰川区处于较高的海拔区间且冬季气温较低,导致夏季升温所产生的冰川消融的影响被削弱,冰川物质平衡的分布与降水分布在空间上具有一致性。南部冰川区出现的强烈物质亏损主要是由于夏季气温的急剧升高和冰川处于较低的海拔区间。南、北区域冰前湖和冰面湖面积不断扩大的空间差异性,也在一定程度上加剧了该地区冰川物质平衡的空间差异。  相似文献